Gold just delivered the kind of year that normally ends with a punchline: enjoy it while it lasts.
In 2025, bullion posted its biggest annual jump since the 1979 oil crisis. Prices have effectively doubled over the past two years, and the market has spent much of the year doing what it rarely does at once: pushing gold into record territory while investors continue to carry meaningful exposure to equities. That combination is unusual. And it’s precisely why the outlook for 2026 is turning into a boardroom conversation for jewellers, not just a macro headline for investors.
A decade ago, a run like this would have been treated as a setup for a deep correction. Today, the prevailing view is different: gold may be settling into a higher “new normal,” with credible forecasts clustering in the mid-to-high US$4,000 range and a bolder camp projecting a test of US$5,000 per ounce in 2026.
Whether that exact number hits is less important than what it represents. For Canadian jewellers, the real story is structural: who is buying gold, why they’re buying it, and what that does to volatility, pricing, and consumer behaviour.
The market has re-rated gold — and it did it fast
This cycle didn’t creep upward. It sprinted.
Gold had never traded at US$3,000 before March, then moved into the US$4,000s later in the year, touching a record of around US$4,381 in October. That speed matters because it changes retail conditions overnight. The customer doesn’t experience gold as a gradually rising input cost; they experience it as sticker shock.
And when sticker shock becomes a pattern, the sales conversation shifts from “Is this beautiful?” to “Is this rational?”
That’s where jewellers win or lose margin.
Central banks are no longer a footnote; they’re a foundation
The strongest case for gold staying supported into 2026 is not retail jewellery demand, and it isn’t day-trader momentum. It’s official-sector buying.
Central banks have been diversifying reserves away from dollar-denominated assets for years. In practical market terms, that creates a buyer that behaves unlike most investors: central banks don’t panic-sell into volatility, and they don’t typically stop buying just because a chart looks “overbought.”
For jewellers, this matters because it can compress pullbacks. If a structural buyer steps in whenever prices soften, the market can hold higher levels longer than retailers expect — and that can trap anyone hoping for a seasonal reset in cost.
Gold ownership is broader — and that changes the cycle
Another shift is participation. Gold as a portfolio allocation has moved higher versus pre-2022 norms meaningfully. More money managers now treat gold less as a temporary hedge and more as a strategic diversification component.
That’s a subtle but consequential change. A hedge is something you add during fear and remove when calm returns. A strategic allocation is something you hold through cycles. If more holders behave like long-term allocators, the market becomes less dependent on “panic bids” and more supported by steady, persistent demand.
That’s how you get a market that consolidates instead of collapsing.
The key risk isn’t “gold down.” It’s “gold down fast.”
Even in a bullish environment, jewellers should focus on one operational risk: liquidity shocks.
When equity markets correct sharply, investors often sell what’s liquid to raise cash. That can include gold, even when gold is the asset they bought for safety. In those moments, spot prices can drop quickly, and wholesale price sheets can move faster than retail practices are designed to handle.
This is where many stores quietly bleed profit: open quotes, long validity windows, custom jobs priced too early, repairs with metal costs that change between intake and completion.
Gold doesn’t have to collapse for the business to feel pain. It simply has to move faster than your processes.
Jewellery demand will be tested — but not necessarily destroyed
High gold prices don’t eliminate demand. They redirect it.
In elevated gold environments, customers tend to:
- trade down in weight without admitting they’re trading down
- trade across karat, moving toward 10kt and two-tone when design holds the value story
- trade into “presence” rather than grams: bolder silhouettes, smarter construction, better styling
- trade into trade-ins: converting old gold into new purchases to keep out-of-pocket spending palatable
This is the paradox of high gold: it can suppress impulse purchases while making planned purchases more intentional — and often more loyal when the jeweller handles the conversation well.
If your store is prepared, higher gold can actually increase conversion through upgrades, redesigns, and trade-in-driven purchases. If you aren’t prepared, it turns into a “let me think about it” machine.
Crypto meets gold — and it’s more than a headline
One of the most interesting developments in this cycle is that new categories of institutional buyers have become visible, including crypto-linked firms adding gold exposure.
For jewellers, the takeaway isn’t that crypto is “replacing” gold or that gold is “becoming crypto.” It’s that gold’s investor narrative continues to evolve. When new buyer types enter the ecosystem, flows can become more episodic, headlines more frequent, and volatility more reactive.
That reinforces the real retail truth: you don’t need to predict gold to succeed — but you do need systems built for fast-moving inputs.
The Canadian jeweller’s 2026 playbook: margin protection in a high-gold world
1) Quote like a professional market participant
Shorten quote windows. Put the rules in writing. Define what locks pricing (deposit, same-day payment, metal hedging through your supplier) and what doesn’t. Customers don’t resent clarity; they resent surprises.
2) Turn trade-ins into a growth engine, not a courtesy
High gold prices increase the psychological value of old jewellery sitting in a drawer. Build a consistent process that customers can trust: assessment, communication, and how credit is applied. Done right, trade-ins don’t discount your work — they finance it.
3) Merchandise for impact, not weight
If your value story is grams, you’re competing against the commodity ticker. Shift the narrative to design, silhouette, wearability, and styling. Sell the outcome: the look on the neck, the stack on the wrist, the daily presence — not the raw material.
4) Protect price points with smart assortment architecture
Keep heavy gold for customers who want it, but build your volume around pieces that hold margin in a high-cost environment: lighter designs with strong visual identity, two-tone, 10kt, and well-finished staples that feel substantial without being metal-heavy.
5) Reprice services and custom work with discipline
Repairs, sizing, and custom builds are where high gold can quietly erode profit. Review how you separate labour from metal, and make sure metal is treated like a variable input, not an assumption.
6) Speak to customer logic without killing the romance
Customers don’t want a lecture on deficits or central banks. They want to feel they made a smart decision. Equip your team with language that preserves desire while reinforcing confidence:
- “Gold moves fast, but this design is meant to be worn for decades.”
- “We can keep your budget smart by using your existing gold.”
- “This is the kind of piece you won’t have to replace.”
What to watch in 2026
- Rate expectations and real yields: shifts can change investment demand quickly
- Equity volatility: large corrections can trigger forced selling across assets
- Central bank tone: continued buying supports the market; slowing changes sentiment
- Consumer adaptation: more trade-ins, lighter construction, and stronger demand for value-proof design
Bottom line
The question for 2026 isn’t simply whether gold goes higher. It’s whether your store is built to operate profitably when gold stays high.
The winners won’t be the jewellers who guess spot prices correctly. They’ll be the ones who run tighter quoting, elevate trade-ins into a deliberate sales channel, merchandise for presence over grams, and give customers a value story that holds up even when the commodity ticker is screaming.
Industry commentary only; not financial or investment advice.
