India’s gem and jewellery trade is showing early-cycle resilience. In the first half of FY2025–26 (April–September 2025), exports rose 3.66% year over year to US$14.09 billion, with September alone up 6.55% to US$2.91 billion—an encouraging turn after months of volatility. The lift is powered by strong gold jewellery orders from the Middle East and steady demand in Hong Kong and the UK, even as shipments to the United States lag under tariff pressure.
Gold Leads; Middle East Drives the Upswing
Gold jewellery (plain and studded) grew 21.97% to US$5.79B in H1. Plain gold surged 46.74% to US$2.80B on firm pricing and replenishment orders; studded gold rose 5.35% to US$3.00B. The UAE anchored demand—India’s plain and studded gold exports to the Emirates jumped 61.37% to US$3.19B—while the UK advanced 17.01% to US$155.5M and Saudi Arabia climbed 124.10% to US$128.9M. A near-36% year-on-year rise in average gold prices was a tailwind for value growth.
Diamonds: Mixed Picture, but Sequential Improvement
Cut and polished diamonds (CPD) fell 9.57% in H1 to US$6.25B, reflecting softer U.S. intake. Yet September showed green shoots, up 5.91% month on month to ~US$1.37B, and per-carat realizations held near US$778—suggesting stabilizing price discovery. The U.S. decline was stark: CPD exports to America slid 53.62% to US$1.18B in H1. Offsetting that, shipments to the UAE rose 65.23% to US$1.30B, and to Hong Kong increased 18.08% to US$2.06B as Asian retail rebuilt inventories ahead of holidays.
Lab-Grown and Other Categories
Polished lab-grown diamond exports eased 7.99% to US$586.6M in H1; the per-carat export value averaged ~US$58.7, consistent with ongoing price normalization as global production scales. Silver jewellery exports rose 17.43% to US$596.4M; platinum jewellery climbed 25.37% to US$106.5M; coloured gemstones edged up 0.75% to US$236.7M.
Policy Watch: Sector Asks for Relief
Industry leaders note that U.S. tariff headwinds continue to strain exporters and their financing. The trade council has engaged policymakers on targeted measures—interest relief on working capital, pre-shipment finance support, an extended Interest Equalization Scheme, permission for reverse job work in SEZs, SEZ-to-DTA sales flexibility, and liquidity packages for MSMEs—alongside worker-centred supports such as concessional loans, temporary Ayushman Bharat cover, and small education grants.
Why It Matters to Canadian Retailers and Suppliers
• Product mix: Expect strong availability and fresh assortments in gold—particularly plain styles—flowing through UAE and Hong Kong hubs.
• Diamonds: Pricing looks steadier than in early 2025; improved September flows hint at cautious restocking ahead of the holiday quarter.
• LGD dynamics: Lab-grown volumes remain meaningful, with continued price rationalization creating margin room for value-driven consumer segments.
• Timing: With India entering its busiest retail quarter, Canadian buyers coordinating with Indian partners via Dubai/Hong Kong may find faster fulfilment windows and broader choice.
