While global trade tensions raise eyebrows, jewellers in Canada may not face the worst-case scenario, and could even find silver linings in their supply chain.
Trade Tensions Rise, but So Far, No Surge in Jewellery Costs
As former U.S. President Donald Trump doubles down on tariffs targeting Chinese imports, the reverberations are being felt across industries—from tech to textiles and, yes, even into the gleaming world of jewellery.
Yet while concerns linger, Canadian jewellers may find some reassurance in what economists are saying: dramatic spikes in retail jewellery prices are unlikely. In fact, the shifting tides of global trade may usher in a few unexpected opportunities for those in the jewellery business, particularly where raw materials and imported tools are concerned.
“Jewellers are right to stay alert,” said Claire Fan, economist at RBC. “But panic? That’s not on the cards just yet.”
Why Jewellers Might See Lower Costs—At Least in the Short Term
At the heart of this economic shake-up lies the United States’ decision to slap up to 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods—everything from tech components to consumer goods. For jewellers, that includes things like sterling silver chains, findings, gemstone beads, watch components, and jewellery-making tools, which are often imported directly from Asia.
The result? China is likely to redirect its products elsewhere, including Canada, potentially at discounted prices.
“Canadian jewellers may see a drop in wholesale prices for certain Chinese-made materials, simply because China is looking for alternative markets,” explained William Huggins, Professor of Finance and Business Economics at McMaster University. “We’re talking about oversupply. When American demand dries up, surplus products will flood other markets, and that includes us.”
This could present short-term advantages for retailers and manufacturers who rely heavily on overseas supplies, particularly those importing silver jewellery blanks, mass-produced base metal pieces, or setting tools.
But there’s a catch, of course.
Canada’s own retaliatory tariffs have been carefully chosen to avoid hammering core consumer sectors, meaning jewellery isn’t directly affected, at least, not yet. Most imported jewellery items or components from the U.S. remain tariff-free unless further measures are introduced.
And because Canada doesn’t produce much of these goods domestically, there’s little in the way of local industry being undercut by cheaper imports.
The Looming Long Game: A Word of Caution for Jewellers
Still, it’s not all sparkle and shine. While some costs may fall in the short term, jewellers should brace for a potential tightening of global supply chains if the trade conflict drags on.
“China may ultimately scale back production,” said Huggins. “If they start manufacturing less across the board, then the temporary surplus could evaporate—and with it, the price dips we’re seeing.”
Jewellers who rely on frequent small-batch imports, especially from suppliers that also serve the American market, may face longer delivery times and higher shipping costs. That’s because much of Canada’s freight efficiency relies on piggybacking off larger U.S. shipments. If volume dips, Canadian firms might have to shoulder a greater share of logistics expenses.
There’s also the risk that currency fluctuations could nibble away at margins. However, for now, the Canadian dollar is doing its bit to hold off inflation.
The Canadian Dollar: A Buffer Against Inflation
A stronger Canadian dollar—currently trading at a five-month high of 72 U.S. cents—is helping to offset potential price increases for imported jewellery goods. This uptick is due in part to a weakening greenback, and analysts suggest it could continue to rise in the short to medium term.
“A firmer loonie cushions the impact for Canadian importers,” said Shaun Osborne, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank. “It effectively reduces the cost of buying in U.S. dollars, which is how most international jewellery transactions are handled.”
Jewellers who stock up now on essential tools, metals, or findings may benefit from these favourable exchange rates. But as always, the foreign exchange market is a fickle friend.
“Now’s a good time to lock in purchases if you’re eyeing inventory for the busy autumn or holiday season,” Osborne added.
Pricing Strategy: Precision Over Panic
So, what should Canadian jewellers expect on the retail front? According to Simeon Siegel, a retail and e-commerce analyst at BMO Capital Markets, businesses won’t be making sweeping price hikes. Not in this climate.
“Any increases will be surgical, not sweeping,” said Siegel. “Jewellers are likely to adjust prices selectively—perhaps for premium items or those tied to specific high-cost components—but not across the board.”
Instead, many in the trade are likely to tighten internal budgets, source smarter, or absorb some costs in the name of customer retention.
For independent jewellers, this means focusing more on value-added services—custom work, personalization, aftercare—rather than leaning too hard on margin hikes.
“Most jewellers know their clients have options,” said Siegel. “A sudden price hike on a pair of silver studs could send shoppers elsewhere. It’s a game of balance—value perception is everything.”
Final Word: Vigilance, Not Alarm Bells
For now, it seems the jewellery trade in Canada will ride out this phase of the trade war with relatively minimal disruption. While suppliers, especially those working with U.S.-based logistics or heavily reliant on Asian imports, may feel the ripple effects more directly, there’s little evidence to suggest a crisis is imminent.
Of course, all bets are off if tariffs expand or diplomatic tensions escalate further—but until then, the outlook remains cautiously stable.
For jewellers, the key is to stay nimble, well-informed, and responsive. Monitoring suppliers, exchange rates, and material costs will be more important than ever.
So, while the headlines may sizzle, for now, Canadian jewellers can keep their cool—and their prices in check.
