Swiss Watch Exports Drop 4.4% in October, Just as the US Cuts Tariffs Back to 15%
Swiss watch exports slipped again in October, falling 4.4 per cent year-over-year to about CHF 2.24 billion, based on the latest data from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. Exports of wristwatches alone declined 4.2 per cent in value, even though volumes actually edged higher. At the heart of the downturn is the United States, where exports plunged 47 per cent in October as the full impact of the summer’s steep 39 per cent tariff finally hit home.
For several months, the narrative was brutally straightforward: a tariff shock in the world’s largest market was choking off demand and forcing brands to reroute product to other regions. But just as the October export figures confirm the damage, a new twist has emerged. In mid-November, Washington and Bern announced a trade deal that will cut US tariffs on Swiss imports from 39 per cent to 15 per cent, roughly in line with the rate applied to European Union goods. For Swiss watchmaking, and for Canadian jewellers who depend on it, that combination of short-term pain and medium-term relief defines the outlook going into 2026.
Tariffs Trigger a Sharp US Slump
To understand why the October data look so harsh, you have to rewind to the tariff shock itself. In August, the US imposed a 39 per cent tariff on Swiss imports, a level more associated with trade wars than with long-standing partners. Importers and brands reacted by rushing products into the country ahead of the deadline, inflating export numbers in late spring and early summer. Once the higher rate came into force, the pipeline was full, prices were under pressure, and orders slowed dramatically. By September, exports to the US had already fallen by more than half compared with the previous year. October confirmed that this was not a blip, but a full-blown correction.
The October numbers tell a story of imbalance rather than collapse. While exports to the US cratered, shipments to China grew for a second consecutive month, and markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore also posted gains. After a bruising 2024, when Chinese demand fell sharply and dragged global totals lower, that rebound on the Asian side of the ledger hints that the luxury downturn there may be easing. Europe, too, has been relatively stable, with solid performances in core markets including France, Germany and Italy. The problem is that no combination of incremental gains elsewhere can fully offset a near-halving of exports to the United States in a single month.
Asia Stabilizes as the US Backs Off the 39% Duty
Against that backdrop, the announcement that the US will now cut tariffs from 39 per cent to 15 per cent landed like a lifeline. The Swiss government confirmed the deal on 14 November, framing it as the outcome of intense negotiations and part of a broader package under which Swiss companies will expand their investment footprint in the United States. Industry figures were quick to welcome the move. A 15 per cent duty is still painful, but it is manageable compared with the 39 per cent scenario that had been hanging over the sector since summer.
Trade and watch media have echoed that sentiment, noting that the new rate sharply reduces the need for sudden double-digit retail price increases in the US and should help stabilize allocation planning for 2026. Crucially, none of that good news is yet reflected in the October export figures Canadian jewellers are reading today. Those numbers capture the worst of the tariff hangover and the destocking cycle that followed it. The reduction to 15 per cent will only begin to influence export flows once it is fully implemented and brands adjust their pricing and shipping strategies. It will take time for that relief to translate into a visible recovery in the monthly data, but the direction of travel is decidedly more positive than it was a few weeks ago.
What This Means for Canadian Jewellers
For Canadian retailers, the interplay between October’s slump and the tariff cut is where the opportunity lies. Canada itself was never the target of the tariff spat, which means Swiss watches entering this market have enjoyed more predictable landed costs throughout 2025. As the US moves from a punitive 39 per cent duty down to a still-significant 15 per cent, a structural gap remains between the two North American markets. When you layer in exchange rates, freight and tax differences, Canada starts to look like a relatively stable and competitive platform for Swiss watch distribution in the region.
This is a moment for Canadian jewellers to be proactive rather than passive. The combination of temporary US weakness and improving tariff visibility gives you a stronger case to push for better allocation on key references. Brands that have been cautious about flooding the US with inventory at a 39 per cent duty may now be more open to reinforcing positions in markets that have demonstrated steady sell-through and disciplined discounting. At the same time, the volatility of the past year has sharpened consumer awareness of pricing. Educating clients about the realities of tariffs, currency and supply constraints, without resorting to scare tactics, can reinforce the value proposition of buying through authorized Canadian channels instead of chasing grey-market deals.
The pre-owned and vintage space is another area where this new landscape matters. During the tariff spike, many observers warned that US buyers could be pushed further into pre-owned as new-watch prices climbed. With the rate now heading back toward 15 per cent, some of that pressure will ease, but the structural appeal of certified pre-owned remains. Canadian retailers who curate strong pre-owned assortments and back them with robust authentication and service are well placed to capture demand from both domestic clients and cross-border shoppers seeking clarity and trust.
Looking ahead, the phrase “Swiss watch exports decline 4.4% in October” will likely be remembered as a snapshot of the trough, not the new normal. The combination of a stabilizing China, a less punitive US tariff regime and pent-up demand in key markets should gradually lift the numbers off their current floor. That does not mean a return to the easy boom years of the early 2020s: consumers are more cautious, competition is fiercer and macro-economic uncertainty is not going away. But for Canadian jewellers willing to read the data, engage their brand partners and communicate clearly with clients, the current moment offers a rare chance to turn global dislocation into local advantage.
